World on the Brink

March 1, 2024
A thorough investigation of "America's top foreign policy challenge." One of the most significant geopolitical trends is the explosive growth of China. With assistance from Graff, Alperovitch, entrepreneur, cybersecurity expert, and founding member of the U.S. government's Cyber Safety Review Board, warns that America is now engaged in "Cold War II" with a nation far more populous and efficient than the former Soviet Union --and just as skilled at bending the rules. The author begins with a fictional scenario describing China's conquest of Taiwan in 2028. Most readers know that this is a long-standing Chinese obsession, but Alperovitch emphasizes that it would be a massive geopolitical triumph, assuring domination of the South China Sea and access to one of the world's most valuable resources: computer chips. "Taiwan alone is responsible for nearly 40 percent of new computing power manufactured every year worldwide," writes the author, adding that the Chinese are as productive, hardworking, and imaginative as Americans--and there are four times as many of them. Beijing's goal of becoming the world's top superpower seems inevitable unless U.S. officials act decisively. "To succeed over the next half century," writes Alperovitch, the U.S. "needs to prioritize two broad enablers of innovation--semiconductor chips and immigration." Regarding the latter, the author echoes other observers in his demonstration of how the U.S. discourages even skilled legal immigrants, a significant problem. Giving computer chips so much emphasis seems a stretch, but the author makes a convincing case that they are today's primary engines of progress. Eschewing the usual homilies about freedom, the author urges America to pay more attention to traditional allies as well as China's neighbors. "Other countries do not need to love us...and most of them...never will," he writes. "But as long as they hate China more, they may prefer to partner with us." Deeply insightful advice for the coming decades.

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